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Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?

WeatherOne-Off3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 98.3%

Forecasters

25

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Aug 15, 23, 12:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Defined as effectively an ice-free arctic for any part of the year.

Defined as <1MM Km^2 of sea ice in the arctic at any point (per Wikipedia definition)
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline#Ice-free_summer)

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026??: Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026? resolve?: Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
How is Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Defined as effectively an ice-free arctic for any part of the year.

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