Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
WeatherOne-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 1:58 PM
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Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
Won
Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Defined as effectively an ice-free arctic for any part of the year.
- Defined as <1MM Km^2 of sea ice in the arctic at any point (per Wikipedia definition)
- (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline#Ice-free_summer)
