Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 73%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 23, 23, 12:06 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which milestone occurs first: AGI deployment, Starship Mars landing, or ice-free Arctic summer?
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PolymarketRules
This question will resolve as YES if the Arctic region experiences an ice-free summer by the year 2050.
- An ice-free summer is defined as a period of at least five consecutive days during which the Arctic sea ice extent is less than one million square kilometers, as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
- The NSIDC uses a 30-year baseline (1981-2010) to calculate average sea ice extent, and an ice-free summer would represent a significant departure from this baseline.
- The question will resolve as NO if the Arctic region does not experience an ice-free summer by the year 2050, or if the data is inconclusive.
