Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedUnverified resolution data: Below 4.6 million km²
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 5:48 PM
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 12:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Below 4.6 million km²100%
Below 4.5 million km²0%
Below 4.4 million km²0%
Below 4.3 million km²0%
Below 4.2 million km²0%
Below 4.0 million km²0%
Below 3.8 million km²0%
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
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Awaiting result
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Antarctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
Futuur(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsRules
Each answer resolves independently.
- An answer resolves YES if the National Snow and Ice Data Center records at least one qualifying daily Arctic sea-ice extent strictly below that answer's threshold.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- The measurement is the lowest individual daily Extent value in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 4 Northern Hemisphere daily CSV for dates from December 19, 2025 through October 1, 2026, measured in millions of square kilometers.
- A value exactly equal to a threshold does not count as below it.
- Use the data available at 10:00 AM ET on October 7, 2026; later revisions are ignored.
