Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
12.0 pts (24h)One-OffWeather22dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBelow 4.6 million km² 99%+12.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+17.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 5:28 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 4:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Each answer resolves independently.
- An answer resolves YES if the National Snow and Ice Data Center records at least one qualifying daily Arctic sea-ice extent strictly below that answer's threshold.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- The measurement is the lowest individual daily Extent value in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 4 Northern Hemisphere daily CSV for dates from December 19, 2025 through October 1, 2026, measured in millions of square kilometers.
- A value exactly equal to a threshold does not count as below it.
- Use the data available at 10:00 AM ET on October 7, 2026; later revisions are ignored.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Below 4.6 million km² at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? resolve?
- Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each answer resolves independently.