Current community forecast
No 57.8%
No 57.8%Forecasters
73
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 23, 9:11 AM UTCJan 1, 50, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Arctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurWill more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
Manifold MarketsAntarctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurWhen will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Antarctic sea ice reach nearly zero before 2100?
Manifold MarketsRules
The criteria for resolving yes is that the Arctic must be fully ice-free at any point in time between now and the start of 2050.
- The Arctic does not need to be fully gone by the year 2050, it just needs to be ice-free at a moment in time.
- Whether the Arctic is fully ice-free will be based on news articles from reputable sources.
- If there's any controversy, I will discuss about it with Manifold users in the comments.
- As a last resort of resolution criteria, this question will resolve Yes when the Arctic ice coverage (at a threshold 15% ice density) falls below 100,000 km squared, as reported in numbers from http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
- The Arctic has less ice cover in summer than in winter, so it is plausible that in summer, the Arctic will be fully ice-free, but in winter, it will reappear.
