PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 98%+1.4pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$101
Liquidity
$372.4
Low liquidityBid / Ask
97.1% / 98.2%
Spread
1.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+1.6 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 12, 26, 3:18 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record.
- If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
- The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
- If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.