KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 91%-4.0pt
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.9K
Liquidity
$75K
High liquidityBid / Ask
91.0% / 92.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 2:00 PM UTCSep 16, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
This Sep 2026 is the hottest September ever?
KalshiWill summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
PolymarketSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
PolymarketWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
PolymarketSeptember 2026 the hottest ever?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRules
If Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:NCEI
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for This Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does This Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever? resolve?
- This Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever? is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026.
- How is This Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever, then the market resolves to Yes.