Current implied probability
2nd hottest 74.6%+17.5ptLeader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$59.9
Liquidity
$5.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
18.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-22.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 28, 26, 3:14 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsThis Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever?
KalshiThis Sep 2026 is the hottest September ever?
KalshiWill summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
PolymarketWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
- Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record??
- Polymarket prices 2nd hottest at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? resolve?
- September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.