Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63.8%
Forecasters
110
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 14, 26, 7:29 PM UTCFeb 28, 27, 9:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiThis Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever?
KalshiRules
Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA
- [image]Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If NOAA ranks 2026 as a tie for hottest year on record, the market will resolve 50/50.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes96%
- No4%
- Total Vol
- $125.8K
- 24h Vol
- $125.8K
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 2026 be the hottest year on record??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? resolve?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? is scheduled to resolve on February 28, 2027.
- How is Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA