Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66%
Forecasters
114
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 7:29 PM UTCFeb 28, 27, 9:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA
- [image]Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If NOAA ranks 2026 as a tie for hottest year on record, the market will resolve 50/50.