Current implied probability
1st hottest 84.2%+6.5ptLeader of 4 outcomes
1st hottest 84.2%+6.5ptMarket quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$7.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 2:06 PM UTCNov 29, 26, 5:14 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record.
- Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
