![[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FErnie%252F9b728a68a79f.jpg&w=128&q=80)
[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036
RegulationAI9y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Malaria 66.8%Leader of 35 outcomes
Malaria 66.8%Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Feb 25, 24, 10:07 PM UTCJul 1, 36, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
PolymarketWill the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiCATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketBy Oct 31, 2026, will openai.com say its agents accessed a U.S. federal government system without authorization?
Manifold MarketsRules
Cured means that in the US, the disease occurs/harms/kills at a rate <=10% the rate it occurred in US residents at EOY 2023 (or best available).
- That is, the rate of new cases of the disease has decreased by at least 90%
- OR, cases happen more often that that BUT the negative consequences can and are normally and easily solved. i.e. if it does happen, the damage done is only 10% as bad as before (by total life expectancy or total QALY impact).
- For example, if we make a disease which used to cause -10 lifespan only take -2, that's not quite enough, but if we also reduce the negative QALY impact by 90%, then that is clearly enough.
- Hard case: where the combined improvement is >90% but the individual QALY+expectancy numbers aren't below it.
- I would like to count this case as a yes but that is proportional to net damage.