U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

3.5% (24h)Politics Regulation AIOne-OffUS Politics5mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current implied probability

Yes 17%-0.0%

Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

$18.9

Liquidity

$708.2

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

11.0% / 22.0%

Spread

100.0%

Wide spread

7d Change

+3.0%

Market data

Updated 15 minutes ago

Nov 12, 25, 10:09 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes17%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Volume trend

$19

Jul 415d of dataJul 26

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

3.5% (24h)Politics Regulation AIOne-OffUS Politics5mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current implied probability

Yes 17%-0.0%

Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

$18.9

Liquidity

$708.2

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

11.0% / 22.0%

Spread

100.0%

Wide spread

7d Change

+3.0%

Market data

Updated 15 minutes ago

Nov 12, 25, 10:09 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes17%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Volume trend

$19

Jul 415d of dataJul 26

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Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

$350

Yes: 7.8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

$166

Yes: 72.6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?

Yes: 55%

KALSHI

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

$81.7K

Yes: 38%

POLYMARKET

Will marijuana be rescheduled?

$9.5K

Before 2028: 66%

KALSHI

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$64,503.97+0.70%

EthereumETH$1,885.50+1.51%

SolanaSOL$74.92+1.38%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0732+5.47%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.98%

BNBBNB$570.41+0.87%

Related News

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".