Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 76.3%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 6:25 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Sydney Von Arx have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRules
I'm referring to SB 315, also known as the Artificial Intelligence Safety Measures Act.
- It's the strongest AI safety bill in the country, stronger than California's SB 53 (TFAIA) which has a Wikipedia page and stronger than New York's RAISE Act which has a Wikipedia page.
- It's been covered in mainstream outlets like The Hill and WIRED.
- I think it's pretty important, but there's a chance its importance will decline later this year if it gets federally preempted or another stronger state legislation emerges.
- I guess it wasn't as controversial as the CA or NY bills.
- But I wanted to know more of the story behind it, so I was hoping it would have a Wikipedia page!
