Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleAug 10, 26, 4:22 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover alien life before 2031?
Manifold Markets9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030-3.0pt82%
- Before 2029-12.9pt48%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $268.6K
- 24h Vol
- $81.3K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+13.0pt58%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $127.5K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+4.0pt49%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for We discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does We discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030 resolve?
- We discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.