PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 4:27 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
7.9 or below · —
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Stored reference
7.9 or below 68%Leader of 7 outcomes
7.9 or below 68%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$229
Liquidity
$3.9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$3.2K
Bid / Ask
— / —
7.9 or belowSpread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 18, 26, 2:53 PM UTCJan 7, 27, 4:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · 7.9 or below
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET.
- The "the named outcome" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
- Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9).
- The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
- An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude.