Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 79.7%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 2, 23, 2:59 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
PolymarketWill San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2027? (May 5)
Manifold MarketsWill a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt3%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.8M
- 24h Vol
- $102.2K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.5pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+0.5pt76%
- 222%
- 3-0.1pt2%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIUS grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- No95%
- Yes-1.2pt5%
- Total Vol
- $785.5K
- 24h Vol
- $2.9K
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+2.0pt88%
- Before 203082%
- Before 2029+4.9pt53%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $271K
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+12.5pt88.1%
- Yes-12.5pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $2.1K
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030? resolve?
- Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.