Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 80% for 2026?
One-OffTechScienceMacro & Economy5mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 4:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 62.6%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 6:27 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if TOPCon technology's share of global solar cell production (GW basis) for the full calendar year 2026 exceeds 80%, as reported by CPIA or InfoLink.
- YES if: TOPCon share >= 80% for 2026 NO if: TOPCon share < 80% for 2026
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- CPIA annual report — technology mix table
- InfoLink Consulting annual solar cell technology market share report
- BloombergNEF / Wood Mackenzie solar technology outlook
