Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 79.3%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 6:26 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 80% for 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed -6.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed -8.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed 0.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if TOPCon technology's share of global solar cell production (GW basis) for the full calendar year 2026 exceeds 70%, as reported by CPIA or InfoLink.
- YES if: TOPCon share >= 70% for 2026 NO if: TOPCon share < 70% for 2026
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- CPIA annual report — technology mix table
- InfoLink Consulting annual solar cell technology market share report
- BloombergNEF / Wood Mackenzie solar technology outlook
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 70% for 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 70% for 2026? resolve?
- Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 70% for 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 70% for 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if TOPCon technology's share of global solar cell production (GW basis) for the full calendar year 2026 exceeds 70%, as reported by CPIA or InfoLink.