Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2028?
CommoditiesOne-OffScience2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.7%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 6:30 PM UTCMar 31, 29, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 80% for 2028?
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if TOPCon technology's share of global solar cell production (GW basis) for the full calendar year 2028 exceeds 90%, as reported by CPIA or InfoLink.
- YES if: TOPCon share >= 90% for 2028 NO if: TOPCon share < 90% for 2028
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- CPIA annual report — technology mix table
- InfoLink Consulting annual solar cell technology market share report
- BloombergNEF / Wood Mackenzie solar technology outlook
