KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 25.1% 98%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$9.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill global GDP growth rate (real) exceed 21% by the end of the 21st century?
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Manifold MarketsUSD share of global FX reserves in Q2 2026
KalshiInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in September
KalshiRules
If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:World Bank
- The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators.
- The Expiration Value will be calculated as: 100 × United States GDP ÷ World GDP
- “United States GDP” and “World GDP” refer to the values attributed to 2026 for the World Bank indicator “GDP (current US$),” series code NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, for the economies United States and World, respectively.
- Both inputs must be taken from the first World Development Indicators database release in which values attributed to 2026 are available for both the United States and World.
- If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US share of global GDP in 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above 25.1% at 98% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does US share of global GDP in 2026 resolve?
- US share of global GDP in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is US share of global GDP in 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
