KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 25.2% 93%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$28.9K
Liquidity
$24.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
92.0% / 93.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 2:00 PMJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 25.1%92%
Volume trend
$28.9kJul 272d of dataJul 28
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Rules
If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators.
- The Expiration Value will be calculated as: 100 × United States GDP ÷ World GDP
- “United States GDP” and “World GDP” refer to the values attributed to 2026 for the World Bank indicator “GDP (current US$),” series code NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, for the economies United States and World, respectively.
- Both inputs must be taken from the first World Development Indicators database release in which values attributed to 2026 are available for both the United States and World.
- If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.