Current community forecast
Yes 83.7%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 25, 24, 4:50 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurUS share of global GDP in 2026
KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRules
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52600524
- ... predicts that business spending to adopt artificial intelligence (AI), to use AI in existing business operations, and to deliver better products/services to business and consumer customers will have a cumulative global economic impact of $19.9 trillion through 2030 and drive 3.5% of global GDP in 2030
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417K
- 24h Vol
- $41.5K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $638K
- 24h Vol
- $34K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $360.8K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Artificial Intelligence drive at least 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Artificial Intelligence drive at least 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030? resolve?
- Will Artificial Intelligence drive at least 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Artificial Intelligence drive at least 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52600524