Current community forecast
No 89.6%
No 89.6%Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 40 minutes ago
Dec 28, 23, 9:26 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.
- The identification must meet the following criteria:
- Scientific Validation: The identification of extraterrestrial intelligence as an artificial intelligence must be reported in at least one peer-reviewed scientific publication in a journal of significant academic recognition.
- The publication should be in fields such as astrobiology, astronomy, artificial intelligence, or related scientific disciplines.
- High-impact journals like ‘Nature’, ‘Science’, or similar status publications are preferable.
- Confirmation by Expert Panels or Authorities: The identification must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two expert panels or recognized authorities in the fields of extraterrestrial research, artificial intelligence, or space exploration.
