Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.8%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 51 minutes ago
LaggingAug 3, 23, 5:06 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if a current Republican member of the US congress is identified as a white nationalist before 2030.
- This market resolves NO if that does not happen.
- Identifying someone as a white nationalist would involve them attending (in person, remotely, or asychronously through video or audio) or speaking at an event intended for white nationalists AND having this be credibly reported on.
- To avoid controversy, I will use this archived list from wikipedia.
- As a result, Rep. Greene and Rep. Gosar's attendance at the American First Political Action Committee does not qualify, while former Rep. King's attendance at an American Renaissance conference does qualify.
- (Note: this question was inspired by former Rep. Steve King's history of racism.)
