Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2026?
CommoditiesScienceYearly5mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingApr 6, 26, 6:27 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if TOPCon technology's share of global solar cell production (GW basis) for the full calendar year 2026 exceeds 90%, as reported by CPIA or InfoLink.
- YES if: TOPCon share >= 90% for 2026 NO if: TOPCon share < 90% for 2026
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- CPIA annual report — technology mix table
- InfoLink Consulting annual solar cell technology market share report
- BloombergNEF / Wood Mackenzie solar technology outlook
