Current community forecast
Yes 96%
Forecasters
63
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 27, 26, 10:23 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.
- The benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.
- Note that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark.
- So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.
- Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed.
- AI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.