What will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?
AIOne-Off15d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast9% or higher (7+ solved) 63.8%Leader of 4 outcomes
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7
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 26, 8:49 AM UTCNov 8, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
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What will the best score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős benchmark be at the end of November 7, 2026 (US Eastern)?
- What the benchmark is: 68 conjectures from ErdősProblems.com, all still open research problems as of August 2026, written in Lean.
- A model gets $300 and 72 hours per problem, and a problem only counts if its proof passes Lean's proof checker.
- No partial credit, no grader judgment.
- Where things stand (Oct 8, 2026): Epoch has scored 5 models.
- GPT-6 Astra (max) leads at 2.9%, which is 2 of 68.
