Current community forecast
Yes 97.4%
Forecasters
71
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Dec 21, 24, 8:12 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem?
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PolymarketRules
This market tracks whether an artificial intelligence system will solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the Clay Mathematics Institute confirming an AI-generated solution.
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17432/ai-solves-millennium-problem-before-july-2025/
- https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027? resolve?
- Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market tracks whether an artificial intelligence system will solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems.