Current community forecast
Yes 74.5%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 26, 10:46 AM UTCSep 14, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Recently, OpenAI has announced that their model solved the "Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness" problem (finite-time blowup, Clay options C and D).
- Will AI solve one of the remaining five within a year?
- The market will be resolved YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, another AI lab or an independent academic heavily using AI makes a credible announcement that their model has solved a Millennium Prize problem, and publishes the full proof or disproof (in Lean or natural language).
- Acceptance by the Clay Institute is not required.
- Partial progress (for example, % of Riemann zeta zeros on the critical line in the density sense) does not count.
- If an independent academic using AI makes an announcement, he must explicitly state that AI did most of the work.
