Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
GeopoliticsMonthlyTechChina3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.6%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleDec 26, 25, 5:09 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026
Manifold MarketsWill China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, at any time between market launch and December 31, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM) or another Chinese central government authority with export-control jurisdiction formally announces or enforces a policy that materially restricts gallium exports to the United States beyond the pre-2024 baseline.
- A material restriction includes any of the following:
- Reinstatement of the December 2024-level export ban on gallium to the United States;
- A new or revised regulation, directive, or enforcement action that results in categorical or widespread denial of export licenses for US-bound gallium;
- The imposition of export conditions that, in practice, function as a ban on gallium exports to the United States.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov? resolve?
- Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria