Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
GeopoliticsMonthlyTechChina2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.4%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 26, 25, 5:09 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill China's suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controls still be in effect on November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China's suspension of its October 2025 export controls still be in effect on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China extend its Ga/Ge/Sb export-ban suspension for the US past Nov 27, 2026, as of December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, at any time between market launch and December 31, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM) or another Chinese central government authority with export-control jurisdiction formally announces or enforces a policy that materially restricts gallium exports to the United States beyond the pre-2024 baseline.
- A material restriction includes any of the following:
- Reinstatement of the December 2024-level export ban on gallium to the United States;
- A new or revised regulation, directive, or enforcement action that results in categorical or widespread denial of export licenses for US-bound gallium;
- The imposition of export conditions that, in practice, function as a ban on gallium exports to the United States.
