Will China's suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controls still be in effect on November 30, 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffTrade PolicyChina1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 87%
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7
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Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 26, 1:13 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if, on November 30, 2026, China's suspension of its October 9, 2025 export-control measures is still in effect.
- That suspension currently runs under MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025, and an extension or successor suspension also counts.
- It resolves NO if any of the suspended measures has taken effect by that date: MOFCOM/GAC Announcements No. 55-58 and MOFCOM Announcements No. 61-62 of 2025.
- Those measures cover holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium, rare-earth equipment and technology, the 0.1% extraterritorial rule, lithium-battery and graphite anode items, and superhard materials.
- China's separate April 2025 licensing regime for seven medium and heavy rare earths staying in force does not affect this market.
- Background: Announcement No. 70 (November 7, 2025) suspended these measures until November 10, 2026, following the Busan Trump-Xi meeting.
