Will the US and Brazil close a rare earths deal in 2026?
Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsLatin America2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 80%
No 80%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquidityTraders
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Updated 1 minute ago
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PolymarketRules
This event predicts whether the United States and Brazil will officially conclude a bilateral or framework agreement on rare earths or other critical minerals at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be a joint official announcement by the U.S. and Brazilian governments confirming such an agreement.
- If the United States and Brazil jointly announce the conclusion of a qualifying agreement on rare earths or critical minerals during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Memoranda of understanding or statements of intent that do not constitute a concluded agreement will not count.
- If official announcements are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.