Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026? resolve?

Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, on December 31, 2026, an official Chinese measure is in effect that suspends or removes the export licensing requirement of MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 for all seven covered elements: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.

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