Will China have active, unresumed export controls on graphite anode material (HS 3801.10/3801.90) on December 31, 2026?
ChinaOne-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.9%
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1
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Apr 7, 26, 2:15 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketWorlds 2026 Winning Region
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China has active, unresumed MOFCOM export controls (licensing requirements, quotas, or bans) on natural graphite or synthetic graphite anode material (HS 3801.10 synthetic graphite, HS 3801.90 coated spherical graphite) on December 31, 2026.
- Current status (April 2026): Controls are suspended (the late-2025 1-year pause from US-China trade talks).
- This market resolves YES if the suspension expires and controls resume before/by December 31, 2026, OR if new controls are announced before that date.
- MOFCOM reinstates export licensing requirements for HS 3801.10 or HS 3801.90 that are in active effect on December 31, 2026
- New export control measures targeting graphite are announced and in force by Dec 31, 2026
- The 2025 suspension remains in effect through December 31, 2026