Will China have active export controls on silicon metal (MG-Si) on December 31, 2026?
ChinaOne-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 6:23 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) or State Council has active export control measures — including licensing requirements, quotas, or bans — specifically targeting silicon metal (MG-Si, HS 2804.69) on December 31, 2026.
- YES if: Active MOFCOM export licensing, quota, or ban on MG-Si in effect on Dec 31, 2026 NO if: MG-Si exports proceed under normal MFN conditions with no additional restrictions
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- China MOFCOM export control registry (mofcom.gov.cn)
- China State Council / NDRC official trade policy announcements
- US Department of Commerce / BIS China trade policy updates