Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58.6%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Apr 6, 26, 6:23 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWorlds 2026 Winning Region
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China has active export controls on silicon metal (MG-Si, HS 2804.69) on December 31, 2027.
- YES if: Active MOFCOM licensing, quota, or ban on MG-Si in effect on Dec 31, 2027 NO if: MG-Si exports proceed under normal MFN conditions
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- China MOFCOM export control registry
- US Department of Commerce / BIS China trade policy updates
- Reuters, Bloomberg, FT China trade reporting