What are the current odds for Will China restrict exports of graphite anode material on December 31, 2026??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55% as of October 25, 2026.

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Will China restrict exports of graphite anode material on December 31, 2026?

ChinaOne-Off2mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 55%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Lagging

Sep 28, 26, 7:47 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has active, unresumed export controls (licensing requirements or bans) on natural graphite or synthetic graphite anode material (HS 3801.10, HS 3801.90).

Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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Will China restrict exports of graphite anode material on December 31, 2026?

Will China restrict exports of graphite anode material on December 31, 2026?

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