Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 70.3%
Forecasters
59
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 24, 2:06 PM UTCMar 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Poland acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsAny G20 leader out in 2026?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iran has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.
- This device must be under the sovereign control of the Iranian State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
- Different countries:
- @/RemNi/will-japan-acquire-nuclear-weapons
- @/RemNi/will-australia-acquire-nuclear-weap
- @/RemNi/will-south-korea-acquire-nuclear-we