Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastChinaLatin AmericaTech4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.4%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 24, 1:31 PM UTCMar 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Japan has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.
- This device must be under the sovereign control of the Japanese State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
- Different countries:
- @/RemNi/will-japan-acquire-nuclear-weapons (this question)
- @/RemNi/will-australia-acquire-nuclear-weap
- @/RemNi/will-south-korea-acquire-nuclear-we
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? resolve?
- Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2031.
- How is Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Japan has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.