Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastChinaLatin AmericaTech4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 96.2%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 24, 1:39 PM UTCMar 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Germany has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.
- This device must be under the sovereign control of the German State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
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- @/RemNi/will-germany-acquire-nuclear-weapon (this question)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? resolve?
- Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2031.
- How is Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Germany has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.