Will Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastChinaLatin AmericaTech4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 10, 24, 5:00 PM UTCMar 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Turkey has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.
- This device must be under the sovereign control of the Turkish State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
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