PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 87%
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.5
Liquidity
$17.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 14.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:05 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes13%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 87% | — | $7.5 | $17.5K | 8 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets90% match · auto | — | 93% | — | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
5mo
93.3%
6.7%
Community forecast16 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$7Jul 227d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.