PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 86.1%
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$345.1
Liquidity
$31.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 14.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:05 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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LimitlessRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+0.7pt98%
- September 25-8.0pt84%
- September 30-5.0pt76%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $807.2K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-2.0pt82.2%
- Yes+2.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $339.1K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt21%
- October 31+3.0pt13%
- September 30+1.4pt4%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt60%
- October 31+4.0pt36%
- September 30+3.0pt11%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt96%
- September 25+4.0pt88%
- September 23+8.0pt75%
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 86% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? resolve?
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.