Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 21, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastNo 95.7%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 days ago
StaleJan 20, 26, 4:30 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes4%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall90% match · auto | Low | 98% | — | $0 | $23.9K | 26 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 96% | — | — | — | 6 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
0.2 pts5mo
98%
2%
49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$79.7K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$320Jul 165d of dataJul 21
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KALSHI
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.