Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 57 minutes ago
LaggingJan 20, 26, 4:30 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
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LimitlessRules
Resolves the same as this market on Polymarket:
- https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-denmark-military-clash-before-2027
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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+17 more outcomes
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- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
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+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
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+20 more outcomes
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- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 more outcomes
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- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US x Denmark Military clash before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? resolve?
- US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves the same as this market on Polymarket:
- Where else is US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.