PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 98%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$24K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 2.1%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 3:50 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes2%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 98% | — | $0 | $24K | 15 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets90% match · auto | — | 96% | — | — | — | 6 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
5mo
95.7%
4.3%
Community forecast10 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5Jul 312d of dataJul 21
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.