China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 94.4%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 23, 25, 7:58 AM UTCDec 15, 26, 7:54 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES only if:
- • Chinese and Japanese military or paramilitary forces (PLA, JMSDF/JGSDF/JASDF, China Coast Guard, Japan Coast Guard) engage in direct armed or physical confrontation, and
- • At least one person from one side is physically injured or killed by the actions of the other side.
- Cross-party requirement:
- • Injuries or deaths must be caused by the opposing side.