China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.8%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleNov 23, 25, 7:58 AM UTCDec 15, 26, 7:54 AM UTC
Trends
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LimitlessRules
Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES only if:
- • Chinese and Japanese military or paramilitary forces (PLA, JMSDF/JGSDF/JASDF, China Coast Guard, Japan Coast Guard) engage in direct armed or physical confrontation, and
- • At least one person from one side is physically injured or killed by the actions of the other side.
- Cross-party requirement:
- • Injuries or deaths must be caused by the opposing side.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026 resolve?
- China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 15, 2026.
- How is China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria