Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 26, 11:41 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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LimitlessRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if there is a direct military clash between Israeli and Turkish forces before January 1, 2027.
- A military clash is defined as armed combat involving weapons fire, airstrikes, or military operations where at least one side is Turkish military personnel or assets and the other is Israeli military personnel or assets.
- The clash must occur in any location (Syria, Turkish territory, international waters, etc.).
- Isolated incidents such as accidental border crossings, single shots fired, or unconfirmed reports do not qualify.
- The incident must be confirmed by credible international news sources or official statements from either government.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
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- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-32.1pt53.6%
- Delcy Rodríguez+31.5pt45.4%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $562K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.6M
- 24h Vol
- $464.3K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? resolve?
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
- Where else is Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.