Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 17, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastNo 93.3%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleMar 11, 26, 11:41 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes7%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall90% match · auto | Medium | 87% | — | $12.5 | $17.6K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 93% | — | — | — | 10 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
5mo
87%
13%
63 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$308K
24h Vol$12.5
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$50Jul 162d of dataJul 17
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KALSHI
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.