PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 2%
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$446.3
Liquidity
$26K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.6% / 1.7%
Spread
6.3%
Moderate spread7d Change
+0.1%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 22, 25, 8:14 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes2%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.