PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 9%-0.1pt
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.4
Liquidity
$8.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
7.4% / 9.6%
Spread
2.2 pt
Moderate spreadComments
11
7d Change
-2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 22, 25, 8:04 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
PolymarketIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill 10 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030
Manifold MarketsUS lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by which date?
PolymarketTurkey rejoins F-35 program by which date?
PolymarketWill Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Greece x Turkey military engagement by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 9% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Greece x Turkey military engagement by which date? resolve?
- Greece x Turkey military engagement by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Greece x Turkey military engagement by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.