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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

3.5% (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East19d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
June 30
June 30 31%+6.0%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

100 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$932.2K

Liquidity

$118K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

10.6% / 10.9%

Spread

2.8%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jun 9, 26, 2:06 AMJun 30, 26, 7:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
June 8
June 8
0%

Selected outcome

June 3031%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement.
  • The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
  • Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify.
  • Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement.
  • The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
  • Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify.
  • Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.