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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?
Manifold Markets

When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East19d
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15 0%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters

14

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Stale
Mar 29, 26, 11:42 AMJun 30, 26, 11:05 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-30
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-31
0%

Selected outcome

By 2026-06-154%

Rules

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.

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Rules

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.