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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

1.5% (24h)One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 7%-0.0%
Market quality

61 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$23.5K

Liquidity

$19.9K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.0% / 7.0%

Spread

16.7%

Wide spread
7d Change

-1.5%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

May 1, 26, 10:17 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes7%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
  • A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
  • The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified.
  • A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
  • A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
  • The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified.
  • A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.