KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
0.1 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 93%
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4.1K
Liquidity
$19.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
7.2% / 7.3%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+3.9 pts
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
May 1, 26, 10:15 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes7%
Volume trend
$4.1kJul 323d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
- A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
- The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified.
- A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.