KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNew Zealand 13.4%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$10
Liquidity
$33.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.1% / 9.8%
Spread
6.7 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Dec 4, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Finland7%
Compare venues· Italy
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · verified | Medium | 16% | 0pt | $187.1 | $72.8K | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 14% | -2pt | $10 | $33.8K | 10 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
1.0 pts5mo
-0.5pt19.3%
14.7%
-3.5pt12.8%
+8 more outcomes
55 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$752.9K
24h Vol$187.1
POLYMARKETRules
If Italy recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Official diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to:
- - A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state - Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level - Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates) - Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations - An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty - A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister
- The following do **NOT** constitute recognition:
- - Trade relations or commercial agreements alone - Consular relations without diplomatic relations - Participation in the same international conference - Humanitarian assistance or aid - Cultural or educational exchanges - Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities) - Statements of "support" without formal recognition - De facto cooperation without formal recognition - Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred - Parliamentary resolutions without executive action
- **For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$10Jul 515d of dataJul 27
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If Italy recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Official diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to:
- - A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state - Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level - Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates) - Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations - An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty - A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister
- The following do **NOT** constitute recognition:
- - Trade relations or commercial agreements alone - Consular relations without diplomatic relations - Participation in the same international conference - Humanitarian assistance or aid - Cultural or educational exchanges - Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities) - Statements of "support" without formal recognition - De facto cooperation without formal recognition - Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred - Parliamentary resolutions without executive action
- **For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge.