PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Belgium 19.3%-0.5ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$187.1
Liquidity
$80.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 16.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spread7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 4:53 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Belgium21%
Compare venues· Italy
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 17% | 0pt | $187.1 | $80.5K | 15 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi82% match · verified | Low | 14% | -3pt | $10 | $33.8K | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?
1.2 pts5mo
13.4%
11.8%
11.8%
+10 more outcomes
42 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$96.3K
24h Vol$10
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.
- An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information.
- However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$187Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.
- An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information.
- However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.